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Russell tice, a longtime insider at the national security agency, is now a whistleblower the agency would like to keep quiet. for 20 years, tice worked in the shadows as he helped the united states spy on other people's conversations around the world. "i specialized in what's called special access programs, " tice said of his job. "we called them 'black world' programs and operations." "the mentality was we need to get these guys, and we're going to do whatever it takes to get them, " he said. according to tice, intelligence analysts use the information to develop graphs that resemble spiderwebs linking one suspect's phone number to hundreds or even thousands more. president bush has admitted that he gave orders that allowed the nsa to eavesdrop on a small number of americans without the usual requisite warrants. but tice disagrees. he says the number of americans subject to eavesdropping by the nsa could be in the millions if the full range of secret nsa programs is used. "that would mean for most americans that if they conducted, or you know, placed an overseas communication, more than likely they were sucked into that vacuum, " tice said.
Figure 10. extensive game with imperfect information between player i, a large software firm, and player ii, a startup company. the chance move decides if player i is strong top node ; and does have a competing product, or weak bottom node ; and does not. the ovals indicate information sets. player ii sees only that player i chose to announce a competing product, but does not know if player i is strong or weak. in contrast, when the large firm is in a strong position, it will not even consider the move of ceding the market to the startup, but will instead just announce its own product. in figure 10, this is modeled by a single choice of player i at the upper node, which is taken for granted one could add the extra choice of ceding and subsequently eliminate it as a dominated choice of the large firm ; . then the payoffs to the two players are 20, -4 ; if the startup stays in and 12, 4 ; if the startup sells out. in addition to a game tree with perfect information as in figure 7, the nodes of the players are enclosed by ovals which are called information sets. the interpretation is that a player cannot distinguish among the nodes in an information set, given his knowledge at the time he makes the move. since his knowledge at all nodes in an information set is the same, he makes the same choice at each node in that set. here, the startup company, player ii, must choose between stay in and sell out. these are the two choices at player ii's.
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This change has impacted greatly upon all the major features of the investment field. in particular, institutional dominance has converted market liquidity from a source of profits to a source of costs, and this is the main reason behind the transformation of money management from a winner's game to a loser's game. before analyzing what happened to convert institutional investing from a winner's game to a loser's game, we should explore the profound difference between these two kinds of "games". in making the conceptual distinction, i will use the writings of an eminent scientist, a distinguished historian, and a renowned educator. they are, respectively, dr. simon ramo of trw; naval historian, admiral samuel elliot morrison; and professional golf instructor, tommy armour. simon ramo identified the crucial difference between a winner's game and a loser's game in his excellent book on playing strategy, extraordinary tennis for the ordinary tennis player. over a period of many years, he observed that tennis was not one game but two. one game of tennis is played by professionals and a very few gifted amateurs; the other is played by all the rest of us. although players in both games use the same equipment, dress, rules and scoring, and conform to the same etiquette and customs, the basic natures of their two games are almost entirely different. after extensive scientific and statistical analysis, dr. ramo summed it up this way: professionals win points, amateurs lose points. professional tennis players stroke the ball with strong, well aimed shots, through long and often exciting rallies, until one player is able to drive the ball just beyond the reach of his opponent. errors are seldom made by these splendid players. expert tennis is what i call a winner's game because the ultimate outcome is determined by the actions of the winner. victory is due to winning more points than the opponent wins not, as we shall see in a moment, simply to getting a higher score than the opponent, but getting that higher score by winning points. amateur tennis, ramo found, is almost entirely different. brilliant shots, long and exciting rallies and seemingly miraculous recoveries are few and far between. on the other hand, the ball is fairly often hit into the net or out of bounds, and double faults at service are not uncommon. the amateur duffer seldom beats his opponent, but he beats himself all the time. the victor in this game of tennis gets a higher score than the opponent, but he gets that higher score because his opponent is losing even more points. as a scientist and statistician, dr. ramo gathered data to test his hypothesis. and he did it in a very clever way. instead of keeping conventional game scores "love, " "fifteen all." "thirtyfifteen." etc. ramo simply counted points won versus points lost. and here is what he found. in expert tennis, about 80 per cent of the points are won; in amateur tennis, about 80 per cent of the points are lost. in other words, professional tennis is a winner's game the final outcome is determined by the activities of the winner and amateur tennis is a loser's game the final outcome is determined by the activities of the loser. the two games are, in their fundamental characteristic, not at all the same. they are opposites. from this discovery of the two kinds of tennis, dr. ramo builds a complete strategy by which ordinary tennis players can win games, sets and matches again and again by following the simple stratagem of losing less, and letting the opponent defeat himself. dr. ramo explains that if you choose to win at tennis as opposed to having a good time the strategy for winning is to avoid mistakes. the way to avoid mistakes is to be conservative and keep the ball in play, letting the other fellow have plenty of room in which to blunder his way to defeat, because he, being an amateur and probably not having read ramo's book ; will play a losing game and not know it. he will make errors. he will make too many errors. once in a while he may hit a serve you cannot possibly handle, but much more frequently he will double fault. occasionally, he may volley balls past you at the net, but more often than not they will sail far out of bounds. he will slam balls. 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